By Chris Kobz, Founder, HappyDog
California public employees… if you’ve been to an open house lately, you probably noticed it. It’s quiet.
Teachers, nurses, firefighters, deputies, city and county workers… a lot of you have been watching this market from the sidelines for a couple of years. Bidding wars. Waived inspections. Offers way over asking. That market is gone, at least for now. And it changed who has the leverage.
What’s happening in the California housing market right now
Here’s what the numbers say this fall.
- Pending home sales in the West are down 15% from a year ago. Nationally, they just hit the lowest level the National Association of Realtors has ever recorded.
- In San Diego, pending sales are down more than 22% from last year.
- In San Jose, new listings are up about 20% and the typical sale price is down almost 5%.
- The median home price in the West is about where it was a year ago.
- Across the country, 22% of sellers have cut their price. That’s a record for Redfin.
Fewer buyers. More homes sitting. Sellers who have to listen.
California home prices didn’t crash. They just got quieter.
If you’ve been waiting for California home prices to fall off a cliff, I don’t think that’s coming. The latest national numbers have home prices up about 2% over the past year… while inflation ran about 3.4%.
So in real money, homes got a little cheaper this year. Not a crash. A quiet discount. And the bigger discount isn’t in the price at all. It’s in what you can ask for.
5 things you can ask a seller for when you buy a home
- A better price. Start under list. On average, homes are selling for a little under asking right now, and only about 1 in 4 is going over.
- Help with closing costs. Ask the seller to pick up part of the bill. That’s cash that stays in your account on move-in day.
- A lower payment for the first year or two. A seller can pay for a temporary buydown. Your payment starts lower, then steps up to the regular payment. The money sits in an escrow account, and if you sell or refinance early, what’s left stays yours. You still qualify at the regular payment, so there are no surprises later.
- Real repairs. Get a real inspection, then ask for the fixes. A couple of years ago, people were skipping inspections just to compete.
- Time. A normal inspection period, a normal appraisal, and a closing date that works around your shifts and your school calendar.
Looking at new construction? Ask the builder what they’re offering before you talk price. About two-thirds of builders are offering incentives right now.
Why a steady paycheck matters in a slow market
A lot of buyers are sitting this out. Some are nervous about their jobs. Some are watching the stock market. Some are waiting for a bottom nobody can call.
If you’ve got a steady paycheck and you’ve been planning to buy anyway, this is the kind of market where you get to take your time and ask for things. The day those buyers come back, the price cuts and the seller credits start drying up. They always do.
Get your numbers lined up first
In a quiet market, the strongest offer isn’t always the biggest one. It’s the one the seller trusts will close. That’s what our OfferReady pre-approval is for.
Want to see what the payment looks like on a home you’ve got your eye on? Start with the mortgage calculator, then talk to us about the offer, the seller credits and the buydown before you write it.
California Public Employees are asking…
Is now a good time to buy a home in California?
Nobody can time the market. What’s different right now is leverage. With fewer buyers out, you can negotiate on price, closing costs and repairs in a way you couldn’t a couple of years ago. If you were planning to buy anyway, that’s worth a look.
What is a seller-paid buydown?
The seller puts money into an escrow account that lowers your mortgage payment for the first year or two. After that, your payment goes to the regular amount. You qualify at the regular payment from the start.
Can I ask the seller to pay my closing costs?
Yes, you can ask. Whether they say yes is part of the negotiation, and there are limits on how much a seller can contribute depending on the loan. We’ll tell you what fits your loan before you write the offer.
Do I have to wait for prices to drop?
Prices are up only a little from a year ago, and less than inflation. Waiting for a big drop is a bet on two things at once… that prices fall, and that the buyers sitting out don’t come back first.
We don’t discount. We start lower.
californiaemployeeloans.com | A program of HappyDog
General market commentary, not investment, tax or legal advice. Market figures are national and regional data from the sources below and are not an offer of credit.
A temporary buydown lowers payments for a limited period only; payments increase after the buydown period ends. Buydown funds may be paid by the seller or builder where permitted. Not all borrowers will qualify. Seller concessions are negotiated between buyer and seller, are subject to loan program limits, and are not guaranteed.
California Employee Loan Program (CELP) is not a government program, a grant, or a government-backed loan. CELP is a mortgage pricing model operated by HappyDog, a registered DBA of Go Rascal Inc., a licensed mortgage broker. Loans are arranged through third-party lenders. NMLS ID 2072896 (nmlsconsumeraccess.org). All loans are subject to underwriting approval, terms and conditions may apply, and programs are subject to change without notice. We are an Equal Housing Opportunity mortgage broker. We do not discriminate based on race, color, religion, national origin, sex, familial status, or disability. This is intended for consumers in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Oregon, and Texas only. Go Rascal Inc. does not conduct business as HappyDog in any states not listed. THIS PRODUCT OR SERVICE HAS NOT BEEN APPROVED OR ENDORSED BY ANY GOVERNMENTAL AGENCY, AND THIS OFFER IS NOT BEING MADE BY AN AGENCY OF THE GOVERNMENT.
Sources
24/7 Wall St.: NAHB builder incentives (Oct 27, 2026)
NAR: Pending home sales decreased 7.3% in September, West down 15% year over year (Oct 20, 2026)
Redfin: record price cuts; San Diego and San Jose metro data (Oct 2026)
Mortgage News Daily: NAR existing-home sales, West median price, September 2026
Yahoo Finance: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller, August home prices (Oct 27, 2026)