The 10-Year Treasury Just Dropped Below 4% — What That Means for Mortgage Rates (and Public Employees)

by | Sep 17, 2025 | Home Prices, Home Refinance

For the first time in almost a year, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%. Why does this matter? Because mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury — when yields drop, mortgage rates often follow.

But here’s the catch: the last time we saw this level, it didn’t last long. Rates quickly bounced back up, leaving many buyers and homeowners wishing they had acted sooner.

Why This Is a Window of Opportunity

  • Rates are easing. After months of stubbornly high borrowing costs, we’re seeing real downward movement.
  • Markets are watching the Fed. With inflation cooling and speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, bond markets are moving in anticipation — pushing yields (and mortgage rates) lower.
  • It may not last. The last dip below 4% on the 10-year was short-lived. If history repeats, today’s opportunity could be gone tomorrow.

The CELP Advantage

If you’re a California public employee, you don’t just get the market shift — you get exclusive CELP pricing.

  • For buyers: CELP rates are often below market, giving you lower payments or more purchasing power than standard programs.
  • For refinancers: CELP pricing combined with today’s lower Treasury yields could mean significant savings — even if you refinanced recently.

TRAC & TRAC+: Making Refinances Cheaper

One of the biggest concerns homeowners have is the cost of refinancing. That’s where TRAC and TRAC+ come in:

  • Lower title and closing costs
  • Faster, simplified process
  • Easier math: savings kick in sooner, making refinancing more affordable right away

With CELP pricing + TRAC/TRAC+, you’re not just saving on your rate — you’re saving on the process itself.


What to Do Now

If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to buy or refinance, this may be it:

  • The 10-year Treasury is below 4% for the first time in a year
  • CELP pricing gives you exclusive savings as a public employee
  • TRAC/TRAC+ makes refinancing cheaper and easier